The price o' yer mornin' cup o’ joe goes up! - The impact of tariffs

Economics was certainly not our strong suit and played a minimal role in both of our academic careers. Gabe’s main memory is from freshman year in high school when his economics teacher would have trivia Fridays and bring in donuts (fresh Krispy Kreme was heavenly). Saúl’s main memory is taking Microeconomics in college and memorizing the Demand and Supply lines (that was the beginning and the end of his economics career).

But, it has come to our attention that tariffs--which will almost certainly have changed by when you read this post--will deeply affect something near and dear to us. No, not our children (for Gabe) or poetry collection (for Saúl), but good guesses.  

Of course you actually know we are talking about our daily lifeblood - our cafécitos. As the Google News’ algorithm long ago figured out coffee is a mainstay for us, our news feeds have become filled with disturbing headlines, like “Coffee is one of the most popular drinks in the US. Tariffs could make it more expensive” or the Journal Sentinel’s recent “Here's how 10% tariffs could affect coffee prices and coffee shops in Wisconsin.” If the whole thing confuses or you need a good laugh, please check out our ChatGPT pirate explanation in the Note B below.

Of course, many news headlines tend to be doom and gloom--or at least use exaggerated claims--as a way to capture our attention. And in the modern day it can be hard sometimes to piece apart what is worth taking into consideration and what is bombastic or blown out of proportion.

Coffee is no stranger to these types of news pieces. It seems like every few months there is a new claim about some health benefit (it is frequently positive, we will note) and lately there have been headlines about the rising prices and possible ramifications of climate change.

It is undeniable that the price of a cup of joe has been rising. The small roasters have been particularly feeling the crunch as coffee prices hit a 50 year record on the futures market late last year (pre-tariffs). The effects have filtered into our everyday cups (or lattes, cortados, and cappuccinos). It scares us to imagine a possible future without coffee. The very idea gives Gabe a headache that would rival how he feels when he has no coffee until 10 am in the morning.

Even if coffee doesn’t become a rare commodity, the high prices are especially hard for all the local businesses who really turn coffee from our life blood to a joy. Tariffs might make this an insurmountable challenge. Their costs rise, even as their sales might take a hit when consumers turn to the cheaper - gulp - Folgers and Maxwell Houses of the world. It would be tragic and deeply hurt us to see the locally owned cafes, the Milwaukee-centric chains, and the quirky roasters shutter under these varied pressures. And of course, there are all the farmers in Colombia, Kenya, Vietnam and more who depend on this little bean for their livelihood and are uplifted by the MKE coffee culture.

Our coffee in the Cream City is deeply connected with the city, its citizens, and the broader world. All of the intricacies that go into our favorite blends as our favorite places link us to people and places here, as well as ones far away. And while it may be easier to view coffee as just a bunch of grounded beans, there are dreams and stories infused in every note. So, please, keep them going and keep the dream alive.

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Note A: Gabe would like to shout out Saúl, who has taken the lead on many recent posts. If you have missed them, check out the highlighted posts down below.

Note B: ChatGPT’s response to “Please explain how United States' tariffs would affect coffee in the voice of a pirate.”

Arrr matey, gather 'round and let ol’ Cap’n Velez spin ye a tale of how the mighty United States’ tariffs be makin’ waves in the world o’ coffee!

Now, imagine the U.S. decides to slap a tariff on imported coffee—say from lands afar like Colombia, Ethiopia, or Brazil. That be like the King demandin’ a toll fer every bean that crosses the border. The merchant ships bringin’ the sacred brew would have to pay gold just to dock and unload.

So what happens next, ye ask? The price o' yer mornin' cup o’ joe goes up! The merchants ain’t gonna eat the cost—nah, they pass it along to the landlubbers buyin’ their lattes and cappuccinos. Starbucks? Dunkin’? They all be raisin’ prices faster than a sail in a storm.

And the poor coffee-growin' folk back in the tropics? They might sell less beans, 'cause the U.S. market be shrinkin’. That be a blow to their treasure chests, no doubt. Could even stir up tension in the trade winds, as other nations raise their own tariffs in revenge!

In short, tariffs on coffee be like a barnacle on the hull—slowin’ down trade, hurtin’ both buyer and seller, and causin’ a whole lotta grumblin’ in the galley.

Now raise yer mug, matey, and thank the seas that tariffs on coffee be rare—else we’d all be drinkin’ bilge water by sunrise! ☕🏴‍☠️

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